Residency Explorer™ Interview Likelihood

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Understand how competitive your application may be, program by program.

The Interview Likelihood feature in the Residency Explorer™ tool helps you understand how selected aspects of your application compare with applicants who received interview invitations from individual residency programs during the previous application cycle. 

Using data from programs that utilize the AAMC Electronic Residency Application Service® (ERAS®) for applications and Thalamus for interview invitations, Interview Likelihood provides personalized insights to help you build a balanced application strategy and spend less time manually evaluating competitiveness.

Interview Likelihood works alongside the Residency Explorer tool's Program Alignment feature to help answer two important questions:

  • How likely am I to receive an interview invitation?
  • How well does this program align with my interests, values, and training goals?

On This Page:

How It Works 

After entering information about your application in the My Application Strategy: Interview Likelihood section of the Residency Explorer tool, you'll receive an Interview Likelihood result for individual residency programs.

For each program, the Residency Explorer tool compares key characteristics of your application with applicants who received interview invitations from that program in the previous residency application cycle.

Two Interview Likelihood models were trained for each program: one for applicants who report USMLE Step exam data and another for DO applicants who report COMLEX-USA Level exam data. DO applicants who completed both Level exams and Step exams will see separate Interview Likelihood results.

Important for DO applicants who took both COMLEX-USA and USMLE

Interview Likelihood currently evaluates COMLEX-USA and USMLE examination records separately and does not combine both examination records into a single result. As a result, DO applicants who submit both examination records will receive separate Interview Likelihood results.

Because residency programs may review both COMLEX-USA and USMLE results when evaluating applicants, these results may not fully reflect how such applicants are reviewed during the residency selection process and should be interpreted with care. Applicants should not average or combine the two results as each result reflects a separate comparison group and should be considered in context.

You will also see the application factors that had the greatest influence on interview invitations, helping you understand your result.

Understanding Your Results

Interview Likelihood is presented as one of four categories: 

  • Well Above Average: Applicants with profiles similar to yours were invited to interview more often than most applicants to this program and were among the top 20% of applicants to this program during the previous application cycle.
  • Above Average: Applicants with profiles similar to yours were invited somewhat more often but were not among the top 20% of applicants to this program during the previous application cycle.
  • Below Average: Applicants with profiles similar to yours were invited somewhat less often but were not among the bottom 20% of applicants to this program during the previous application cycle.
  • Well Below Average: Applicants with profiles similar to yours were invited less often than most applicants to this program and were among the bottom 20% of applicants to this program in the previous application cycle.

Why You Can Trust These Results

Interview Likelihood was developed by the AAMC using data from the 2026 residency application cycle, including ERAS application information and Thalamus interview invitation data.

To maximize accuracy:

  • A separate statistical model was developed for each residency program.
  • Models were built using application characteristics that research has shown are associated with interview invitations.
  • Every model was evaluated for predictive performance and precision.
  • Only programs whose models met predefined quality standards were included.

These models identify patterns in historical interview invitation decisions and provide applicants with personalized, research-based information about how applicants with similar characteristics performed at individual programs during the previous application cycle. Still, the models do not include all factors considered by programs, and programs’ selection criteria may change over time. Therefore, Interview Likelihood is intended to be one source of information to consider when building an application strategy and is most useful when considered alongside other program-specific information, advising, and other factors that are not included in the models.

Note for DO applicants: Applicants who report both COMLEX-USA and USMLE examination results may want to consider both Interview Likelihood results as part of their overall application strategy.

What Interview Likelihood Considers

Interview Likelihood uses selected application information that has been shown to be associated with interview invitations.

Depending on the applicant group and license exam reported, models may consider:

  • Program signals
  • USMLE Step exam performance*
  • COMLEX-USA Level exam performance*
  • Medical student type (DO/ MD/Non-US IMG/US-IMG)* 
  • Hometown and program location
  • Medical school and program location
  • Publications and scholarly work

The importance of each factor varies across programs. All factors included in Interview Likelihood have been shown to be associated with interview invitations, but the strength of those relationships differs. For example, licensing exam performance may play a significant role for many programs, while publications and scholarly work meaningfully influence Interview Likelihood for only a small subset of programs.

*For applicants who report USMLE Step exam data, the models consider Step exam performance and medical student type. For DO applicants who report COMLEX-USA Level exam data, the models consider Level exam performance. 

What Interview Likelihood Does Not Consider

Interview Likelihood does not evaluate your entire application or other information considered by programs during application review. Factors commonly considered by residency programs that are not currently included in the model include:

  • Clerkship grades
  • Letters of recommendation
  • Personal statements
  • Away rotations
  • Meaningful experiences
  • Research quality and impact

Because these factors are not included, Interview Likelihood is not a prediction or guarantee of any outcome and should be viewed as one element of your application strategy.

Using Interview Likelihood Effectively

Interview Likelihood is intended to help you make informed decisions about where to apply and is not meant to determine where you should or should not apply.

The feature is most useful when considered alongside:

  • Program Alignment results
  • Program websites
  • Your personal career goals and priorities
  • Specialty-specific advising
  • Faculty and mentor guidance

It is important to note that an applicant may be well aligned with a program even if their Interview Likelihood is Below Average. Additionally, applicants with an Above Average Interview Likelihood are encouraged to evaluate whether a program aligns with their interests and training goals.

The strongest application strategies typically consider both competitiveness and program alignment.

A Step-by-Step Approach to Reviewing Interview Data

The Explore Programs page provides several different views of interview data. Each view is designed to answer a different question, and the most effective way to use the information is to review it together rather than focusing on a single result. Not all interview-related data on the Explore Programs page are calculated the same way. Some information looks at your overall application profile, while other information looks at one applicant characteristic at a time.

For example, your Interview Likelihood considers multiple aspects of your application together, including factors such as examination performance, applicant type, geographic connections, publications, and signaling. Because residency programs often consider many factors at the same time, Interview Likelihood is designed to reflect that.

The interview rates shown provide a different perspective. These data examine individual characteristics separately, such as applicant type, state alignment, or signaling. They can help you understand historical interview patterns for applicants with a particular characteristic, but they do not show how multiple factors may work together during application review.

Recommended approach

When reviewing a program, consider the information in the following order:

  1. Start with the program's Interview Rate: This provides a broad view of how often the program invited applicants to interview in the prior cycle. Programs with higher interview rates generally invite a larger proportion of applicants than programs with lower interview rates.
  2. Look at your Interview Likelihood without a Signal: This shows how your overall application profile compares to similar applicants from the prior cycle before considering the impact of signaling.
  3. Then look at your Interview Likelihood with a Signal: Comparing your Interview Likelihood with and without a Signal can help you understand the potential impact signaling may have at that program.
  4. Use the additional interview rate data for context: The interview rates for applicant type, state alignment, signaling, and other characteristics each look at one factor at a time. These data can help you understand past interview patterns for applicants with a specific characteristic, but they do not reflect how programs evaluate applications overall. Your Interview Likelihood considers multiple factors together, which is often closer to how programs review applications.

Keep in mind: A "Well Above Average" result means your likelihood of receiving an interview is higher than that of similar applicants who applied to that program in the prior cycle. This result should be interpreted alongside the program's overall Interview Rate. For example, a "Well Above Average" result at a program that interviews 30% of applicants does not represent the same likelihood as a "Well Above Average" result at a program that interviews 10% of applicants. Because of this difference in overall Interview rate, your actual likelihood may be higher at the program with a 30% overall interview rate because they invite a higher proportion of applicants overall. 

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Frequently Asked Questions

Does the Interview Likelihood feature predict if I will receive an interview? 
No. It provides an estimate based on historical interview invitation patterns and selected application characteristics. The guidance offered by this tool is not a guarantee of potential outcomes. For example, the models do not include all factors considered by programs during application review, and programs may change their criteria over time.

Why does the feature include categories instead of percentages? 
Interview decisions are complex. Presenting results as categories makes them easier to interpret and helps avoid overemphasizing small differences that may not be meaningful.

Can residency programs see my results? 
No. Interview Likelihood results are only visible to you.

Can I update my information? 
Yes. You may update and resubmit your application information up to three times between August 2026 and July 2027. Each resubmission counts as one update, regardless of how many application fields you change. After your third submission, no additional updates or resubmissions will be available.

If I am a DO applicant with both COMLEX-USA Level scores and USMLE Step scores, does entering each set of scores count as a separate submission? 
No. Applicants enter all their application information, including any COMLEX-USA Level and USMLE Step examination scores, as part of a single submission. Entering or updating both examination records at the same time counts as one submission, not two.

Why is Interview Likelihood unavailable for some programs? 
Some programs may not have sufficient historical data, may not have participated in the ERAS program or Thalamus, or may not have met AAMC standards for providing an estimate of Interview Likelihood.

Why do some DO applicants receive two results?
Applicants who report both USMLE Step and COMLEX-USA Level scores will receive separate results because the tool evaluates these records separately. Each result is based on a different comparison group and uses the information available for that model. Applicants should review both results in context and should not average or combine them into a single result.

Why might my COMLEX-USA-based and USMLE-based Interview Likelihood results differ?
The Interview Likelihood feature does not evaluate COMLEX-USA Level and USMLE Step performance together for applicants who report both examination records. As a result, the two results may differ because they are generated separately, use slightly different information, and reflect different comparison groups. Both Interview Likelihood results may offer useful context for application planning, but they should be interpreted with care and considered alongside advising, program information, personal goals, and other factors not included in the models.

Think of it like comparing your Level 2 CE score with other DO applicants and your Step 2 CK score with all applicants reporting a Step 2 CK score—each comparison gives you a different perspective. Also consider whether the program requires DO applicants to submit USMLE Step scores. If a program requires DO applicants to submit Step scores, you may wish to give additional consideration to the Interview Likelihood result based on Step exam data. This result compares you with other applicants who reported Step exam scores and may provide a relevant point of comparison for programs that require those scores as part of the application process.

Why is my Interview Likelihood compared to DOs with Level exams different from my Interview Likelihood compared to All Applicants with Step exams?
The Interview Likelihood feature cannot evaluate COMLEX-USA Level and USMLE Step performance together for applicants who took both examinations, and therefore, two separate results are generated. Both Interview Likelihood results can be helpful and should be interpreted with care. Each Interview Likelihood compares you with a different group of applicants and uses slightly different information. Both Interview Likelihood results can be helpful, and we recommend looking at both. 

Think of it like comparing your Level 2 CE score with other DO applicants and your Step 2 CK score with all applicants—each comparison gives you a different perspective. Also consider the program's application requirements. If a program requires DO applicants to submit USMLE Step scores, it may place more weight on Step scores during application review. In that case, you may want to give more consideration to the Interview Likelihood result compared to All Applicants with Step exams since it includes your Step exam performance.

What if I don't have all of my application information yet? 
You can return later and generate Interview Likelihood once your application is more complete.

Should I avoid applying to programs where my Interview Likelihood is Below Average? 
Not necessarily.Interview Likelihood is intended to help you make informed decisions about where to apply and is not intended to be used to eliminate programs from consideration.

We recommend that applicants consider applying to a mix of programs across all four Interview Likelihood categories based on your goals, geographic preferences, guidance from mentors, and program alignment.

If your Interview Likelihood is Below Average for a program and you are still interested in applying, consider other important factors:

  • Does the program's mission align with your interests?
  • Have you had experiences that align with the program but are not reflected in the model?
  • Are you passionate about the patient population or community it serves?
  • Does the curriculum support your career goals? 

Remember, residency programs consider many factors that Interview Likelihood does not consider. A Below Average result does not mean you won't receive an interview invitation.

What if my Interview Likelihood is Below Average or Well Below Average at most programs?
Before you apply to these programs, explore whether you align with the program in other ways. For example:

  • Do your interests and values align with the program’s mission and goals? 
  • Do you have experiences or a passion for working in the program’s community or serving their patient populations? 

Consider exploring programs where your Interview Likelihood falls Above Average or Well Above Average. You may find some programs that weren’t on your radar, and yet they align with your interests and goals for training.

How was the model evaluated?
The Interview Likelihood models underwent extensive testing before being included in the Residency Explorer tool. Researchers evaluated how well each program's model distinguished applicants who received interviews from those who did not, how closely models’ interview likelihoods matched actual interview invitation outcomes, and how consistent the model results were across thousands of residency programs.

Overall, the results showed strong performance. Across programs, the average ability of the models to distinguish between applicants who were and were not invited to interview (measured by the area under the curve, or AUC) was 0.89 for models based on applicants with Step exams and 0.87 for models based on DO applicants with Level exams. Nearly 93% of models based on applicants with Step exams and 89% of models based on DO applicants with Level exams met or exceeded the target standard for this measure.

Only models that met predefined quality criteria are included in the Residency Explorer tool. 

Do higher Interview Likelihood categories correspond with higher interview invitation rates?
Yes. Researchers tested whether applicants placed into higher Interview Likelihood categories actually received more interview invitations. Across specialties, applicants in the higher interview likelihood categories consistently received interviews at higher rates than applicants in categories with lower interview likelihood. Depending on specialty, the model correctly identified a majority of applicants who received interviews. The median percentage of interviewees correctly classified as Above Average or Well Above Average (i.e., sensitivity/recall) ranged from 83% to 91% for models based on applicants with Step exams and 68% to 91% for models based on DO applicants with Level exams.

In addition, applicants placed into higher interview likelihood categories also had meaningfully higher observed interview invitation rates, were more likely to signal, and had higher exam performance.

Note: These findings are based on historical application and interview data. Residency programs may change their interview selection practices from year to year, so Interview Likelihood estimates should be viewed as a reflection of past patterns rather than a prediction of future interview decisions.

What if my Interview Likelihood is Above Average at most programs? 
While this is an encouraging outcome, it is still important to consider alignment with individual programs. 

We encourage applicants to use the Program Alignment feature, program websites, conversations with mentors, and other advising resources to identify programs that best match your interests, values, and career goals.